The S&P 500 with and without Apple: Round 2

CNNMoney by Phillip Elmer-DeWitt
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The picture is even more striking than it was a month ago

In February, Jonathan Golub at UBS started a new fashion on the Street by publishing two versions of his regular quarterly forecast: one for the S&P 500, and another for what he called the "S&P 500 ex-Apple."

Strategists at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Wells Fargo soon followed suit.

In Golub's February calculation, the S&P 500's Q1 2012 earnings were on track to rise 6.8% with Apple (AAPL), but would shrivel to 2.8% without. MORE................

How to Handle the Coming Dividend Tax Hike

SmartMoney by Jack Hough
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Hough: Will the favorable tax treatment on dividends go away at the end of 2012, even as Apple and other companies roll out new dividends?

Apple (AAPL: 602.23, -7.63, -1.25%)'s dividend announcement this past week is good news for income investors, but bad news might be lurking around the corner. MORE.............

Geithner Asked What Would Be Very Last Debt Ceiling Request; Says "A Lot, Would Make You Feel Uncomfortable"

Real Clear Politics

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"If this were the last debt ceiling increase you could ask for, the final one, and you had to make it large enough for all current and future obligations, what would the request need to be?" Congressman Trey Gowdy (R-SC) asked Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner at a Capitol Hill hearing on Wednesday.

"I don’t know how to answer that question," Geithner said to Gowdy.

After being prodded by the Congressman, Geithner eventually told him, "it would be a lot."

“It would be a lot,” Geithner finally said. “It would make you uncomfortable," he added.

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With Friends Like These …

The Washington Free Beacon by The Washington Free Beacon Staff
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Union Names Chinese Premier 'Best Friend of American Worker'

At the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s regular press conference last week, spokesperson Liu Weimin’s revealed that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was awarded ”the Best Friend of American Worker” by the US International Longshoremen’s Association. The Chinese ambassador to the United States reportedly received the award on his behalf. Liu explained:

It is learned that this year marks the 10th anniversary of the cooperation between China Cosco Group and the US port of Boston. The past decade has witnessed sound cooperation between the two sides, which sustains and creates a large amount of job opportunities for Boston. It reflects the mutually beneficial nature of China-US economic cooperation and trade. The award presented by the US International Longshoremen’s Association to Premier Wen Jiabao is to thank the Chinese Government for its efforts to encourage Chinese enterprises’ investment in the US and to promote bilateral economic cooperation and trade. This gratitude is sincere and heartfelt. Premier Wen Jiabao visited the Port of Boston during his visit to the US in 2003. MORE.....................

OBAMACARE COST MORE THAN DOUBLES

THE EXAMINER Washington by Phillip Kline
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President Obama's national health care law will cost $1.76 trillion over a decade, according to a new projection released today by the Congressional Budget Office, rather than the $940 billion forecast when it was signed into law.

Democrats employed many accounting tricks when they were pushing through the national health care legislation, the most egregious of which was to delay full implementation of the law until 2014, so it would appear cheaper under the CBO's standard ten-year budget window and, at least on paper, meet Obama's pledge that the legislation would cost "around $900 billion over 10 years." When the final CBO score came out before passage, critics noted that the true 10 year cost would be far higher than advertised once projections accounted for full implementation.

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The Real 'Entitlement Mentality' That Is Bankrupting America

Rasmussen Reports by Scott Rasmussen
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Many Republicans talk of an entitlement mentality that threatens the character and finances of the United States. In their view, the problem is that too many voters feel entitled to goodies provided by the government and financed by taxpayers.

It is true that so-called entitlement programs are growing as a share of the federal budget and the national economy. Along with spending on national defense and interest on the federal debt, spending on entitlement programs consumes the overwhelming majority of the federal budget. But a close look at the data shows that it's not a voter sense of entitlement that is driving the process. Quite the contrary.

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Doug Casey: "It's a Dead-Man-Walking Economy"

Casey Research by Doug Casey

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In an interview with Louis James, the inimitable Doug Casey throws cold water on those celebrating the economic recovery.

[Skype rings: It's Doug Casey, calling from Cafayate, Argentina. He sounds tired, but pleased with himself.]

Doug: Lobo, get out your mower; it's time to cut down some green shoots again, and debunk a bit of the so-called recovery.

Louis: Ah. I have to say, Doug, the so-called recovery is looking more than "so-called" to a lot of smart folks. Even our own Terry Coxon says the recovery is real, albeit weak.

Doug: Terry's probably looking at it by the numbers, some of which are reported to be improving. But let's come back to the numbers later and start with fundamentals. The first order of business, as usual, is a definition: a depression is a period of time in which the average standard of living declines significantly. I believe that's what we're seeing now, whatever the numbers produced by the politicians may seem to tell us. MORE..........